Simulation & Prediction (CESPE)

3Notifications

CESPE — runs simulated futures (Monte Carlo, discrete-event, digital-twin, counterfactual) to predict outcomes, quantify uncertainty and trace causes before any plan executes.

Delivery Confidence73%SO-0395
Prediction Accuracy91%+2.3% calibration
Active Simulations5,000Monte Carlo runs
Dominant RiskSupplierABB MV breakers

Prediction Center

PRD-1042Pending
FAT readiness · MV container SO-0395
Ready 21 Jul (1d late)
68%
Monte Carlohorizon 30d
PRD-1043Validated
Schedule completion · LV MCC SO-0412
On time 18 Jul
84%
Discrete-Eventhorizon 21d
PRD-1044Pending
Supplier delay · ABB MV breakers
Delay 6–9 days
41%
Monte Carlohorizon 45d
PRD-1045Validated
Resource overload · CNC-02
Overload wk26–27
77%
Digital Twinhorizon 14d
PRD-1046Pending
Quality · dielectric test reject
Reject prob 12%
12%
Causalhorizon 28d
PRD-1047Pending
Delivery · PTU container SO-0388
Ship by 5 Aug
73%
Scenariohorizon 40d
What-If Scenarios — on-time FAT for SO-0395
S1 · Baseline70%
Current schedule
FAT 22 Jul, 1d late$0 · Medium
S2 · Expedite breakers85%
Air-freight ABB MV breakers
FAT 20 Jul, on time+$6.5k · Low
S3 · Overtime assembly81%
2 shifts Bay-B, 2 wks
FAT 19 Jul, on time+$9.1k · Low
S4 · Counterfactual88%
Order breakers 1 wk earlier
FAT 17 Jul, 5d early$0 · Low
Causal Impact / Risk Propagation
1
Supplier Delay (ABB MV breakers)41%+6 d
2
Material Shortage (MV cubicle)38%+5 d
3
Assembly Delay (Bay-B)35%+4 d
4
QA Delay (dielectric / hipot)22%+2 d
5
FAT Delay (substation container)20%+2 d
6
Shipment Delay18%+3 d
7
Revenue Delay (Q3 milestone)18%$1.2M slip